What to Expect on Election Night

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Anthony York, Senior Advisor, Tom Steyer for Governor

DATE: Monday, June 1, 2026

MEMO: What to Expect on Election Night

After one of the most unpredictable and competitive primary campaigns in recent memory, the focus now turns from campaigning to counting. But that can take a while. If this race is as close as public polling suggests, the outcome may not be known on Tuesday night. In fact, it could take days, or even weeks, for the final result to become clear.

For several election cycles, Democrats have enjoyed a significant advantage in early voting, producing Election Night returns that have typically been more favorable to Democrats. This year, however, Democratic voters appear to be holding onto their ballots longer than usual, while Republicans continue to grow more comfortable voting by mail.

Because of the way California processes and counts ballots, those shifts could make this year’s Election Night results far less predictive than they have been in recent elections. The first wave of returns may not be as overwhelmingly Democratic as observers have come to expect, while later counts could prove more favorable to Democratic candidates than is typically the case.

In short, we expect a larger share of Democratic votes to be counted later in the process than in previous statewide elections.

Historically, the earliest Election Night returns – known as the "8:01s" because they are released shortly after polls close at 8:00 p.m. – have been the most Democratic. (These are ballots that are dropped early in the voting process.)  Election Day votes have tended to be more Republican, while ballots counted during the post-election canvass generally fall somewhere in between.

This year, those patterns may look different. Based on current voting trends, we expect the 8:01 vote to be less Democratic than normal and the canvass vote to be more Democratic than normal. As a result, if the race remains close after Election Night, later ballot counts could produce meaningful movement in the results, particularly for more progressive Democratic candidates.

Tom’s Support is Strong Among Late-Deciders

Polls showed the race closing considerably in the closing weeks, with Tom carrying momentum into the final days. We think Tom will continue to gain vote share as the late ballots are tallied for a number of reasons. First, we believe the canvass vote will likely be less Latino than past years, as we saw more voters across the spectrum hold onto their ballots longer.

Also, the canvass vote tends to be younger and more independent, which have both been groups with which Tom performs well. Also, the diminishing possibility of a Democratic lockout in the race’s closing days will, we believe, cut into Becerra’s potential margin among so-called “strategic voters.”

Turnout Is Running Ahead of Recent Gubernatorial Primaries

Since the Memorial Day holiday, ballot returns have accelerated significantly. Over a three-day period last week, the number of returned ballots increased from 2.2 million to 3.25 million. The pace of voting now exceeds what we saw during the comparable period in 2022.

If current trends continue, total turnout could surpass both the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial primaries, potentially reaching roughly 8 million ballots cast statewide.

Based on historical patterns, the first major Election Night release is expected to include approximately 3.9 million ballots, give or take a few hundred thousand. By the end of Election Night, that number could rise to roughly 4.9 million ballots counted – approximately 60 percent of all ballots ultimately cast.

Millions of Ballots May Still Be Outstanding After Election Night

Analysts, campaigns, and observers should be cautious about drawing conclusions too quickly.

Between one-third and one-half of all ballots could remain uncounted when Californians wake up on Wednesday morning. Depending on final turnout, as many as 2 to 3 million ballots may still be awaiting processing after Election Night.

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Despite all the twists and turns of this campaign, 2026 is shaping up to be a high-turnout election marked by unusually fluid voting behavior. Democrats are voting in greater numbers than they were earlier in the cycle, but they are also voting later than they traditionally have. At the same time, Republicans appear increasingly willing to vote by mail.

Those shifts could make Election Night results more volatile and less predictive than in recent California elections. With millions of ballots potentially remaining to be counted after Tuesday, early returns may tell only part of the story. Patience, and careful analysis of the ballots still outstanding, will be essential before drawing firm conclusions about the outcome of this race.

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